Recent Play Details

4% Boston ML (8:30 ET): The Western Conference Finals ending in a sweep shouldn’t be all that surprising from the perspective that Denver is a 1-seed and the Lakers were a 7-seed. The Nuggets were the top team out West all season (even if the odds didn’t reflect that coming into the playoffs). But what is transpiring here in the Eastern Conference is downright shocking. Yes, the Miami Heat have made it to this round three of the last four seasons, including last year vs. these same Celtics. But in 2023, we’re talking about a Heat team that had to go through the play-in round and posted a negative point differential & net efficiency in the regular season. (In the play-in round, they were trailing the Chicago Bulls - who are not a good team - in the 4Q at home!) 

There have been six times this postseason where the Heat won despite trailing in the game by double digits. Both Games 1 and 2 of this series are among them, but then came an absolute blowout in Game 3 where they crushed Boston 128-102 as a 4.5-point home underdog. Seeing the Celtics down by that many was a real “head-scratcher” for me and I’m glad I didn’t get involved in any way. But now that they’re facing elimination, and being priced as an underdog, I’m seeing value on the Celtics here. 

Now they may very well end up closing as the favorite tonight, but FWIW the Celtics are 8-1 ATS this season in the underdog role. Miami has been terrible as a favorite this year (22-38 ATS), especially at home (15-24-2 ATS). No matter where this line closes, the point spread is likely to be a non-factor tonight, but something else to consider is that Boston is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS the L3 seasons when off three consecutive losses, including a perfect 3-0 this season. I also think we’re certain to see a reversal in the respective shooting percentages from the last game as the Celtics were 39.8% overall (including 11 of 42 from three) while the Heat shot 56.8% and 19 of 35 from three. No sweep here. 4% Boston ML (Play to -125)