Prior to his last outing, Nathan Eovaldi went 3 straight starts without allowing a run while going at least 8 innings in each. Eovaldi recorded another quality start last time out, holding a very good Atlanta offense to just 3 earned on 5 hits. His 2.46 FIP is even lower than his already stellar ERA, mainly because he doesn’t walk anyone and nearly all of his analytics are top-notch. Eovaldi’s 4-seam/split/cutter mix has produced a very low barrel rate as well as wOBA. The Rangers have also scored the most runs in baseball and Rich Hill is due for some major regression. Hill’s fastball is as soft as it gets at this level and his barrel% is almost twice the league average. This will be an outing where he gets blown up and given Eovaldi’s current form, we can feel comfortable with a 5% play on Texas. Take the Rangers.
5% Play on Rangers (975) at -165 or better, 4% at worse than -165
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