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(975) Texas Rangers at (976) Pittsburgh Pirates - Tuesday matchup Rangers at Pirates
FINNs MLB 5% TOP of the TICKET - Texas Rangers -150  |  List N Eovaldi (RHP) and R Hill (LHP) 
The moneyline position on the Rangers -150 is good up to -170 (above and beyond the -170 I recommend the Rangers on the runline of -1.5 (-130 or better)
5% game rating
Starting Pitchers: List Eovaldi and Hill
Home Plate Umpire: Adam Beck
Weather: The forecast for PNC Park is calling for first-pitch temps in the mid-70s with no precip expected. Light winds are expected to blow in from centerfield at 4-8 mph.

Texas sits atop the American League West standing with a 2-game lead over the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros. The squad has seen the return of Corey Seager and only four games back from a month on the IL to a hamstring injury the shortstop is in MVP form.

The Texas Rangers rank third in baseball vs lefthanded pitching in terms of OPS (.841)
4th in BAA vs LHP with a .295 average

The Rangers own the top-of-the-chart On Base Percentage vs Southpaws this season with a .374 OBP.

Furthermore, only the Rays, Braves, and Cubs have a higher SLG percentage than the Rangers vs lefties.

More forthcoming on this Tuesday baseball matchup breakdown with any relevant injury information, home plate umpire, and weather report.

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Update breakdown (4:10 Vegas Time)

Home Plate Umpire: Adam Beck is in line to be assigned home plate on Tuesday. Beck is a neutral umpire when working behind the dish. He doesn't offer a boost to a pitcher in terms of strikes called, or strikeouts. He increases the walks for finesse (more innings pitched than strikeouts) pitchers. Feel comfortable placing Hill in that category. Beck has the 10th highest runs per game among pitchers with 100 or more home plate assignments in his career. 
 

Eovaldi continued with his new pitch mix last Wednesday with a seven-innings pitched outing that saw him allow five hits, and three runs while striking out five against two walks vs the Atlanta Braves as Globe Life.

The start prior to his work versus the Braves found him narrowly missing a complete-game shutout in the Bay Area versus the Oakland Athletics. He tossed eight shutout innings three starts back, his first of May, in Los Angeles allowing five hits while striking out five and walking two against the Angels, it was his fourth win of a season he is now 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 61 K in 60.1 innings or work.

Eovaldi has six consecutive quality starts after a trio of outings to begin the season in which he was four outs short of two more, or eight of the nine he has been a part of this 2023 campaign.

Rich Hill is 4-3 on the season with a 3.80 ERA that includes 43 K in 47.1 innings. Note that seven (7) of Hill's nine starts this season have come against teams with losing records. Eight of the nine rotation turns that Hill has been involved with in the early stages of the 2023 campaign have come against offenses that are in the bottom 13, bottom half, of the league in terms of OPS. His four wins have come against Colorado, Cincinnati, Washington, and most recently Detroit. Hill's losses versus Toronto, Houston, and Cincinnati in his season opener.

What the Pirates have done so far this season is incredibly impressive considering. As of May 18th, in Hill's last start in which the Bucs defeated the Tigers 8-0 at Comerica Park, the win was the first for a Pirates starter other than Mitch Keller, in an April 29 doubleheader dub against the Washington Nationals. Despite a stat, you won't find in May, let alone since May of the last century, the Bucs are 24-22 on the season heading into this week's opening series against the Texas Rangers

The Pirates were rather ecstatic about that victory over the Tigers, yes enthralled, celebrating the win over Detroit, and offered a large number of butt slaps to Hill and his performance. In reality, it was the Tigers allowing the Bucs to cluster 14 hits. Hill allowed one hit in six shutout innings against the Tigers striking out seven against two walks. The 43-year-old owns a 2.23 ERA and 35:11 K:BB across 32.1 IP, his last six starts lowering his ERA below 4.00 to a respectable 3.80.

However, not all is what it seems when you take Hill's numbers and add adjusted weight. The lefty has a mere 7.4% SwStr% which is, if I might not going to win a large number of games in this day and age of Major League Baseball and the professional hitting profiles that exist on the better rosters and more capable offenses. Hill's xFIP is north of 4.00 by nearly a half run and all things equal Hill hasn’t had an xFIP under 4.00 in the last three seasons with each season progressively finding his xFIP further and further towards the 5.50 mark.  
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Dating back to late last August my notes on Hill are picture perfect of a finesse arm in which Hill appeared effecient overall but had not pitched past the sixth inning until in the August 27th start vs Tampa Bay. In his next start following that seven innings victory over the Rays, he faced the Rangers who at the time had scored the 6th-most runs in the majors since the All-Star break while ranking 8th in the majors in against lefties with a ridiculously successful OPS of .763.  

Eovaldi has a number of impressive outings this season. He shut down the  Yankees on April 29 with a complete game and followed that start with 16.2 innings, an eight and 8.2 frames of work, that were also without runs scored. The three runs he surrendered to the Braves, who have the best team Hard Contact percentage in baseball, were the first runs in May and since the 24th of April.

Eovaldi's last start in April, versus the Yankees, in which he surrendered three hits, walked none, and struck out eight offered a sightline of who Eovaldi has become. The righthander was regularly hitting 98 mph on the stadium gun, and doing so in the eighth inning. He threw 78 of his 113 pitches for strikes. 

Furthermore, his arm flexibility has improved with age. In the start following the 113 pitches, he showed no negative effect throwing 107 in a scoreless start against the Angels and then turning in another 113 pitches thrown start shutting out the Athletics. 

Texas Rangers -150  |  List N Eovaldi (RHP) and R Hill (LHP)