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Royals (7:40PM ET BSD, BSKC, MLB.TV) – Solid week in both MLB and KBO last week, I’m thrilled with the 4-1 bounce back in KBO and content where we are in the plus so far nearly two months through the MLB season.  We aren’t even close to halfway yet so there’s still plenty of time to get back to where we were in MLB last season and I’ll look to cash another big one on Monday night with a 5% MAX BET in the opener of a three game set when the Kansas City Royals take on the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

This Tigers team is better than the masses thought they would be, but I still think Detroit is a sub-.500 baseball team and I think this is a good spot to “sell” the Tigers.  I’m not “all-in” on Kansas City by any means but the underlying metrics suggest the Royals are better than their record and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say these two teams are fairly even, despite what their respective records suggest.  Last season these two teams were equally bad and, unsurprisingly, their season series was very even with the Tigers taking it 10-9. This is the first meeting for these teams this year, I think it’s possible the rest of the way the Tigers and Royals post similar records and I’m really not seeing an edge here for Detroit other than the perception they are the “better” team based on their hot start.  The Tigers have scored 157 runs this season, it’s the fewest in the majors so the argument that the Royals are “bad” offensively can’t be used here since the Royals 185 runs dwarfs that.  These two teams own the two lowest OBP’s in baseball but the Royals have a higher hard hit rate and have shown flashes of being capable offensively while the Tigers are going to have to do it with pitching and defense or they aren’t going to win many games.  Detroit hasn’t hit with RISP much the past two weeks and when the Tigers aren’t cashing in on opportunities they aren’t scoring many runs because there’s simply not a ton of pop in this lineup.  The Royals saw their bats go silent on their recent road trip but I think they benefit from a return home as the Tigers have been worse on the road and Detroit’s road woes should continue here. 

I know returning home from a road trip can be a fade spot but, based on some of the quotes coming out of the Royals clubhouse, I don’t think that’s going to be the case here.  Vinnie Pasquantino was given the day off yesterday, he was ice cold on the road trip but didn’t seem to take kindly to the benching and I think we get a focused effort out of one of the Royals top offensive players here.  The Royals were starting to roll at home prior to the road trip, winning four of their last five at Kaufmann Stadium, and they give the ball to the right guy to get them back on track as starter Brady Singer has absolutely owned the Tigers during his career.  Singer is 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA in 10 career starts against the Tigers with the Royals going 8-2 across those 10 starts.  The numbers don’t jump off the page but I thought Singer was outstanding last time out going six innings and giving up just two runs in a win in San Diego over the Padres and I’m willing to call that “turning the corner” for Singer as that’s now back to back quality starts.  The Royals bullpen should be better than they are and I think this could be a good spot for them as their high leverage relief arms are all available off three straight losses.  Singer has been giving length and the Royals have the right mix of bullpen arms rested to handle the late innings here. 

Detroit counters with Michael Lorenzen, he’s certainly not a fade for me as I’ve backed him a few times on this run but I’m willing to sell him now as I’m just not sure he can sustain his current pace.  Lorenzen had a horrific April, he posted a 7.07 ERA and didn’t make it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts.  Lorenzen has been a completely different pitcher so far in May, in three starts he has a 0.90 ERA and the Guardians, Mets and Pirates all weren’t able to generate any hard contact off of him.  I think Lorenzen probably falls somewhere in the middle, I don’t think he’s as bad as he was in April but this is a guy that’s had an ERA in the mid/high 4.00’s the past few years and hasn’t had sustained success as a starting pitcher so I’m not buying this will be the norm for Lorenzen going forward.  I also think Lorenzen is better at home in pitcher friendly Comerica Park than on the road where he is yet to win this season.  The Tigers bullpen has been a nice surprise but could be due for regression there as the innings start to pile up (not a ton of depth).  Overall I love the spot for the Royals (and to fade the Tigers) and were getting a great price on this bet.  Play on Royals -108 for 5% (or 5 units)