Recent Play Details

4% Cincinnati +1.5 (6:40 ET): St. Louis has gotten hot, winning 11 of its last 14 and they just took three of four from the Dodgers at home over the weekend. This is a team that is almost certainly better than its record (21-27) as they now sport a +13 YTD run differential. I cashed the Cardinals back on Thursday when they destroyed the Dodgers 16-8 in the series opener. But the Redbirds are now entering “uncharted territory,” at least for this season, as Monday marks the first time in 2023 that they’ll be road favorites of -175 or higher. I think the price is just too high and taking the Reds with the +1.5 is the right way to play this one. 

Now the Reds were just swept (by the Yankees) here at home over the weekend. This team seems destined for last place even with the NL Central being completely wide open at the moment. But the Reds played hard against the Yankees and the fact they were swept is a little misleading. On Friday, they lost 6-2, but the Yankees scored three times in the top of the ninth (cruel if you had the +1.5). More of the same Saturday as the Reds fell 7-4 in 10 innings (blew an early 4-1 lead). Then in yesterday’s early game, the Reds led 1-0 into the fifth. I firmly believe this team is due for a better result on Monday. 

The Cardinals have a losing road record this season (10-12) while the Reds are .500 at Great American Ballpark (12-12). The visitors have also been terrible in night games (11-20). Getting his second start for the Reds will be Brandon Williamson. He pitched shockingly well in his big league debut last Tuesday, allowing just one run on two hits in 5 ⅔ innings, a game Cincy won 3-1. St. Louis is going with Jordan Montgomery and they have lost each of his last seven trips to the mound. In each of his L2 starts, Montgomery has allowed two home runs. This is a great value play, IMO. 4% Cincinnati +1.5 (Play to -125)