Recent Play Details

4% Arizona +1.5 (6:40 ET): Do not understand the Phillies getting steamed here as I’ll gladly take the 1.5 run head start, along with the better ballclub and a guarantee of a full complement of 27 outs. The Diamondbacks arrive in the City of Brotherly Love fresh off a pair of wins in Pittsburgh over the weekend. After successfully fading the D’backs on Friday (they lost 13-3 w/ Zac Gallen on the mound!), I jumped on board Saturday as they won 4-3 as +122 underdogs. I didn’t play Sunday’s finale, but as alluded to earlier, that was a win for the D’backs as well, 8-3, as they improved their record to 27-20 on the year. 

Philadelphia also won each of the last two days, 12-1 and 3-2 over the Cubs, but they are still two games below .500 with a -28 run differential. (D’backs have a +12 run differential). It seems as if bettors are counting heavily on the Phillies’ starter, Zack Wheeler, in Monday’s series opener. But he’s allowed 4+ runs in four of his nine starts thus far and the lineup he’s facing today is putting up 5.1 runs per game, good for sixth best in all of baseball. The Phils also have just one win by more than one run over the last 7 games. Despite the Cubs having only three hits and not scoring until the top of the 9th yesterday, the Phils would have lost if not for a pinch-hit HR by Bryson Stott in the 7th. 

Arizona turns to Tommy Henry on Monday. Despite not having great overall numbers, Henry has a couple of quality starts this month and going back to last season, there’s been only one time in his L7 starts where the D’backs lost by more than one run. I like this D’backs team (which has now won 7 of 9) a lot more than I like the Phillies, who have lost three of the four games this season where they’ve been a home favorite of -175 to -250 on the money line. Give me the +1.5 here. 4% Arizona +1.5 (Play to -135)