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2% AS Roma (12:30 ET): High price, but if I’m being honest (and I always am!), it would be stunning if Roma failed to win here. Jose Mourinho’s side may be fresh off from advancing to the Europa League Final (1-0 on aggregate over Bayer Leverkusen), but there’s also the “small matter” of trying to finish top four in Serie A this season. Entering Monday, Roma is now seven points back of the top four (with three matches left) and 7th in the table. There’s no guarantee that a 7th European spot will open up in Italy (contingent on Wednesday’s Coppa Italia Final). Yes, winning the Europa League Final (against Sevilla) will guarantee Champions League football for Mourinho’s side next season. But as of right now, they are not guaranteed any European competition for 2023-24. A strong finish on the domestic front may be needed. 

Thankfully here for Mourinho and company, they’ll be facing a Salernitana side that is a) not good and b) already safe from relegation. “On the beach” so to speak, Salternitana have nothing to play for these final three matches. Honestly, it’s a shock to see them already safe from relegation, given that they have the worst xGD in Serie A as well as the fewest number of xPts. The numbers clearly suggest that it should be Salernitana joining Cremonese and Sampdoria down in Serie B next season. I thought they were fortunate to escape relegation last season as well. This is a club I’ll almost certainly be betting to drop after 2023-24. 

Roma have the lowest xGA (expected goals allowed) in any of the “Big 5” European leagues this season. By that measure, it’s shocking to see them only seventh in the league. But they have dominated those teams in the bottom half of the table (+1.11 xGD per 90 mins), conceding very few goals. Keep in mind that they did not concede a goal over either leg against Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League. Salernitana are dead last in Serie A in xGA and second worst in xG. They have also not won any of their last seven away fixtures. 2% AS Roma (Play to -225)