Recent Play Details

4% Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals snapped a four-game losing streak yesterday by beating the Tigers 5-2. The first three losses of that aforementioned losing skid came in Miami, two of them by exactly one run. I probably don’t need to remind you that the Nats were projected to be pretty bad again in 2023, but their run differential so far (-23) isn’t that bad. Despite being 19-27 overall, they’ve been outscored by fewer runs than the 20-23 Tigers (-49 run differential), who are a team I’ll be looking to fade moving forward. Remember I had a nice +140 win on the Pirates against them back on Wednesday. 

Now it’s not often you’ll see Washington favored. In fact, yesterday marked the first time it happened all season as they closed -115 on the money line. The number for today has been steamed up a bit higher as of press time, but that’s okay as I really like the starting pitching matchup from the Nationals’ perspective. Josiah Gray now has a 2.73 ERA after allowing 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts. He’s gone at least six innings in five of those. I like this matchup for Gray as the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball with just 153 runs scored through 43 games. Three times in the last nine games Detroit has been shutout and in two others (including yesterday) they scored just two runs. 

Starting opposite Gray will be Joey Wentz, who has a 6.38 ERA and no quality starts in eight trips to the mound. Somehow, the Tigers are 3-0 his L3 starts despite a 1.60 WHIP. The only start this year where Wentz made it a full six innings, he allowed five runs and three homers. He lasted just 2 ⅔ innings last time out. Washington has actually been profitable in day games so far, Jeimer Candelario (.522 BA L6 games) is seeing the ball well right now and I see the home team winning here. 4% Washington (Play to -145)