Recent Play Details

4% San Diego (4:10 ET): I realize that the Padres are in a terrible way right now, having dropped the first two games of this series against the Red Sox, four straight and 11 of their last 13 games overall. But I feel we have a substantial starting pitching edge to exploit here with Michael Wacha facing Corey Kluber. This feels like the “bottom of the market” on a San Diego team that was projected to win the NL West this year and compete for the World Series. Here they are in May, six games below the Mendoza Line. For what it’s worth, all the early money seems to be on the Padres as this line has been steamed up almost 30 cents. 

Wacha has been absolutely sensational over his last three starts, allowing just one run and six hits over 19 innings. That’s a 0.47 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. Last time out, Wacha had 11 strikeouts as he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. Now that was against the lowly Royals, but be aware Wacha also threw six scoreless innings against the Braves earlier this year with 10 strikeouts. Boston may have a strong lineup, but they are averaging basically a full run fewer per game away from Fenway Park while hitting a collective .234. Home runs have accounted for 7 of the Red Sox 10 runs in this series. Wacha has allowed just 1 HR over his L5 starts. 

Meanwhile, Kluber’s best days are behind him. He has just one quality start and a 6.41 ERA in eight trips to the mound. Things have gone worse overall for Kluber at Fenway than they have on the road, yet let’s note that he has allowed at least one HR in all eight starts! He gave up two in a 9-1 loss to the Cardinals his last time out. In addition to the starting pitching edge, the numbers say the Padres have the better bullpen as well, at least at home. Might seem risky, but I’m joining the rest of the market and hammering the home team here. 4% San Diego (Play to -170)