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Reds (11:35AM ET Peacock) – The Cardinals rally late and then hold off a late rally from the Dodgers to cash our 5% MAX BET as part of a 3-0 overall Saturday sweep.  We are now rolling on the bases and I’ll look to finish the week strong as we head to the MLB “brunch game” when the Cincinnati Reds look to avoid the sweep against the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The Reds have been unlucky to not win a game so far in this series, they have been even unluckier to not cover the +1.5 on Friday or Saturday and I think that luck finally changes with a Reds win here.  The Reds trailed 3-2 with two outs in the top of the 9th on Friday before giving up a two run double to a guy hitting under .200 this season. Yesterday the Reds were tied or in the lead the entire game until the Yankees threw up a three spot in the top of the 10th inning to win 7-4.  On Sunday the Reds will have the best pitcher they have had all series on the mound against a Yankees “ace” that hasn’t pitched since the playoffs last year. Luis Severino will be on a pitch count of 70-75 pitches here, this Yankees bullpen has racked up a ton of innings so far this week and I simply see the Reds in a better position to succeed on their home field this afternoon.

Severino will make his 2023 debut today for the Yankees after straining a lat muscle in the final week of Spring Training.  Severino has had a lengthy history of injuries so the Yankees are holding him to the 70-75 pitch range and Severino has already said “I don’t know if I can do much with 75”.  Severino was frustrated he wasn’t allowed to throw more than 60 in his most recent rehab start at Scranton-Wilkes Barre and it’s becoming quite clear the Yankees are more concerned with long term for Severino than what he does on a Sunday in May against the Reds.  At absolute best Severino makes it through five innings which means we get our cuts against a Yankees bullpen who has logged A TON of innings this week including high leverage spots yesterday for Michael King and Clay Holmes. King threw 33 pitches and hasn’t thrown on back to back days all season so he’s definitely unavailable and Holmes has been used extensively this week so it’s possible he’s not as sharp as usual here.  Ron Marianaccio had a two inning outing yesterday and the Reds are likely only seeing Wandy Peralta if the Yankees are taking a lead into the 9th inning so, as long as that lead isn’t by more than one, we are good there too. The Reds started to hit the ball hard yesterday, I think their game plan will be patience against Severino and a timely hit or two should be good enough to get us home here. 

The Reds counter with Hunter Greene, he was roughed up by the Rockies last time out but that was at Coors Field and I’m willing to back a Greene bounce back outing here.  Greene hasn’t been lights out by any means but his 0-3 record is harsh as he’s pitched good enough where he should have at least one win at this point.  Greene had a 1.21 WHIP as a rookie last year which is an excellent mark for a starter and posted a 2.19 ERA through five starts in April. He’s been roughed up of late by the Rockies and White Sox but that’s two lineups that have hit their stride so I’m willing to take that with a grain of salt here.  Of course the Yankees are suddenly knocking the cover off the ball but they haven’t seen Greene and he’s a very different pitcher to what the Yankees have faced the past two days.  Ben Lively doesn’t throw particularly hard and has to hit spots while Luke Weaver has had to rely more on his secondary pitches as he’s had to overcome injuries the past few seasons.  Greene is going to come out throwing a 100MPH fastball and I think that could potentially catch the Yankees off guard here.  The Reds bullpen isn’t great but they do have their better relief guys available.  I like how this lines up for the Reds to steal one at, at worst, stay within the margin here.  Play on Reds +1.5 (-115) for 4% (or 4 units)