Recent Play Details

4% Torino (9:00 AM ET): This is the mother of all “sandwich spots” for Fiorentina, who just advanced to the Final of the Europa Conference League (3-1 win in added time over Basel on Thursday) and have the Coppa Italia Final (vs. Inter) on Wednesday. La Viola have absolutely NOTHING left to play for in the Serie A campaign. They are currently 10th in the table with only three matches remaining and no shot of reaching the European places. They are far more concerned with their two chances of qualifying for next season’s Europa League, the first being Wednesday and the other the UECL Final vs. West Ham (which is in a couple of weeks). 

It’s not just that Fiorentina played Thursday and has a bigger match on deck. They also had to play 40+ minutes of AET in Switzerland where the dramatic game winner did not occur until the 9th minute of stoppage time in AET. Until Antonin Barak found the back of the net, it very much looked as if that second leg was headed towards penalties. It’s now going to be incredibly difficult to get up for this “meaningless”  league affair, especially with an eye on Wednesday. I expect a rotated starting XI for Fiorentina here, similar to the match against Udinese (where 9 players sat). The market seems to agree.  

Now Torino also has really nothing to play for these last few match weeks. But without any other commitments, Il Toro can at least focus on finishing in the top half of the table. A win in front of their own supporters would go a long way in achieving that goal. Getting the full three points on Sunday would move Torino level with Monzo for eighth in the table, leapfrogging both Fiorentina and Bologna. Based on both xGD (expected goal difference) and xPts (expected points), Torino “should” be 8th in the table, so considering their own recent form (WDWlW) and the opponents’ likely lack of motivation, this is an easy call. 4% Torino (Play to -125)