Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

8:30 PM ET -- NBA

539 Denver Nuggets  
540 L.A. Lakers  

Play: 540 L.A. LAKERS -5.5 (-115)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at -6 or better
2% play at -6.5

If LA is gonna play an A-game in this series, I have to believe it'll be Game 3 tonight.  The Lakers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home in these playoffs with the lone ATS loss coming in a play-in game against Minnesota.  And that home record improves to 4-0 SU/ATS if LA is off a loss, as they are heading into tonight.  Did I mention LA won those four games by an average of 25.25 points?

Denver is just 2-3 SU/ATS on the road in these playoffs.  And the situation doesn't appear to be in their favor either.  In the history of the SDQL database, NBA playoff Round 3 Game 3 road underdogs with a 2-0 series lead (like Denver) are just 3-9 SU and ATS, including 1-4 SU/ATS if the line is more than +3.

LA's calling card since the All-Star break has been its defense.  They did a good job in the Game 2 loss, holding Denver to 43.8% shooting from the field on their home floor.  I expect another solid defensive showing from LA tonight, except this time I expect more of their own shots to fall.  Why do I say that?  Remember that 4-0 SU/ATS record at home off a loss in this year's playoffs?  Well, LA shot 50.9% from the field in those four games, while holding their opponents to 36.3% shooting.

I'm expecting LA to make a statement that this series is far from over with a big home W tonight.

6-0 (LA's last 6 home playoff games)
4-1 (NBA angle for fading road dogs >+3 with 2-0 lead)
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10-1 91% combined angles