Recent Play Details

3% Take Denver (#539)

The SU Winner in each of the first two games of this series failed to cover the pointspread.  No surprise here if that happens again tonight…IF Denver doesn’t pull off the outright upset.

The mainstream narrative seems to be that Denver isn’t a good road team and the Lakers can’t be beat at home.  I’m not buying either argument.

The regular season ended 100 years ago for these players and coaches – the regular season is a loooong way in the rear view mirror.  With a #7 and an #8 seed still standing here in the postseason, clearly, this year’s regular season results aren’t a particularly good predictor of postseason play.  At this stage, I couldn’t care less about which teams were successful winning road games months ago.

Denver has played five road playoff games.  They won a crucial Game 3 at Minnesota with a 2-0 series lead, and in Game 4 of that series, they took the T-wolves to overtime before falling short.  In Game 3 at Phoenix, with a 2-0 series lead, the Nuggets played great, but they ran into Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on a night where they couldn’t be stopped.  Denver still only lost by 7.  Frankly, they played well enough to win Game 4 at Phoenix also, losing by only five after Booker and Durant went nuts again; needing Landry Shamet’s unlikely late three point barrage to win.  With the series on the line in Game 6 at Phoenix, the Nuggets blew out the Suns, a game that was over before halftime.

That’s five highly competitive efforts in five postseason road games from Denver, none of which were losses by more than seven points.  This team is still HUNGRY for respect; they’re HUNGRY for a first ever franchise trip to the Finals.  And yet the betting markets and the mainstream media keep selling Denver short when they hit the highway here in the playoffs – we’ve seen a ridiculous 13.5 point adjustment in the pointspread between Game 1 and Game 3 WITH NO INJURIES to warrant that type of adjustment.

The Lakers played a brutal, physical seven game series against Golden State, and this series is going every other day – no extra rest for a noticeably tired squad.  Lebron got banged up in Game 2, so did Anthony Davis – LA’s superstars are wearing down.  Yes, LA has played well at home in the playoffs, but it’s not like no one has given them a battle.  Minnesota took them to OT in the play-in game.  Memphis took them to OT.  Golden State lost by only 3; a game the Warriors probably should have won. 

LA didn’t cover the -8.5 against Minnesota in the Play-In game.  They haven’t been favored by more than -4.5 since.  Denver is the best team that they’ve faced.  Plain and simple – too many points!  Take the Nuggets

Line Parameter: 3% at +5 or higher, 2% at +4.5 or lower