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wt.buzz/db

10:10 PM ET -- MLB 

929 Boston Red Sox 
930 San Diego Padres   

Play: 929 BOSTON First 5 Innings RL +0.5 (-130)   

List Pitchers: Sale & Musgrove   

Bet Size: 4% 

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -140 or better 
3% play at -141 to -145 
2% play at -146 to -150   

I'm almost afraid to bet this because the line makes no sense to me.  Why is San Diego favored?  Because they're at home?

I mean, I know Chris Sale's road numbers aren't good this season, but San Diego is just 1-5 in home night games against LHSP, averaging only 1.8 runs per game.  So, either Sale is gonna finally produce a solid road start or the Padres are finally gonna smash a lefty.  San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine games, averaging just 2.4 runs in that span, and producing a lousy 66 wRC+ (34% below average) against LHP in that span.  So, my money is on Sale, who is coming off his best start of the season.  In fact, Sale's last three starts have resulted in 20.1 innings of work in which he allowed just 13 hits with a 24/2 K/BB ratio.

San Diego's Joe Musgrove has fallen off the map.  Look at Musgrove's numbers:

BB/9: 2016-22 = 2.28 ..... 2023 = 3.79
HR/FB: 2016-22 = 13% ..... 2023 = 18.5%
ERA: 2016-22 = 3.79 ..... 2023 = 6.63
FIP: 2016-22 = 3.79 ..... 2023 = 6.14
xFIP: 2016-22 = 3.83 ..... 2023 = 4.98
WHIP: 2016-22 = 1.17 ..... 2023 = 1.63

You get the idea.  Boston's Justin Turner is very familiar with Musgrove, as they played in the same division in '21 and '22 when Turner was with the Dodgers.  Turner produced a .412 average, .941 SLG, and .592 wOBA in 20 plate appearances against Musgrove, which includes three homers.  I'm sure Turner will provide a good scouting report on Musgrove to his teammates in preparation for tonight's game.

The Padres are 1-8 in their last nine games and are not hitting, Boston has won three straight and scored 27 runs on 35 hits in the process.  I'll be shocked if this game isn't at least tied after 5 innings.  I wanna take Boston F5 ML, but I'm more confident in the F5 RL.  And I don't wanna "double dip" on this one and take both.  I'm very picky about those double-dip spots.  So I'll just roll with Boston F5 +0.5 at -130.