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Cardinals (7:15PM ET FOX) – Tough MLB split with the Reds blowing the cover with one out to go but the Pirates win huge and SSG wins in KBO this morning to put us on the right track into Saturday.  I’m stepping it up with a MAX BET today and I’ll head to Saturday night for the third game of a high profile four game series between the St Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.

The Cardinals ran into a gem from Dodgers pitching yesterday but that’s understandable as it was Tony Gonsolin (one of the toughest RHP in the league 1st/2nd time through the order) and four of the Dodgers better relief pitchers to see out a 5-0 win.  That’s not going to happen here, Noah Syndergaard (at this point in his career) isn’t in the same class as Gonsolin and I’m happy to go against this Dodgers relief unit in high leverage spots since the Dodgers have had a bottom 10 bullpen all season. Prior to yesterday’s shutout loss the Cardinals were averaging 7.7 runs per game with 27 home runs in a 11 game stretch where St Louis went 9-2.  Nolan Arenado is playing like the MVP I expected him to be entering this season and the depth that I spoke about prior to the season for the Cardinals is showing up with guys like Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman (afterthoughts a few weeks ago) making huge contributions.  The only thing that suggests the Dodgers are the better team here is their respective win/loss records, but it’s mid-May and I’m willing to bet it’s a different story in that department a couple months from now. The Cardinals quietly have a top 10 bullpen, all of the underlying metrics suggests the Cardinals will end up with an equally productive offense to the Dodgers and I think we have an edge in the starting pitching department big enough to warrant the Cardinals bouncing back at home here.

The Dodgers go with Noah Syndergaard and (I’ve said this a couple of times already this season) I think Thor’s best years are behind him at this point. Syndergaard will be 31 in August, he’s dealt with big injuries the majority of his career and he’s looked mediocre through eight starts this season. Syndergaard wont go more than six innings and when he does he typically gives up at least 2-3 runs so I fully expect a Cardinals offense that just saw Gonsolin to breathe a sigh of relief when they see far worse stuff from Thor here.  Gonsolin is as elite of a RHP as you will find in the game right now, the only other starter to baffle the Cardinals in the past couple weeks was Chris Sale (LHP with nasty stuff) but Syndergaard has been out over the plate at times this season and the Cardinals should capitalize on that.  The Cardinals saw Thor at Dodger Stadium a few weeks ago and knocked him around for three runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings that is somehow Syndergaard’s only win of the season.  THAT was a Cardinals team that was still reeling, THIS is a Cardinals team that’s figured out how to put teams away and if it doesn’t happen against Syndergaard I think the Cardinals will have ample opportunity against a Dodgers bullpen that I still have rated in the bottom third of the league. 

The Cardinals counter here with Miles Mikolas, he got off to a terrible start in 2023 but Mikolas has been on an upward trajectory for a while now and I think he turns in another quality start here.  Mikolas didn’t pitch in the series at Dodger Stadium a few weeks ago so the Dodgers don’t have the benefit of having just seen Mikolas like the Cardinals do Syndergaard.  Mikolas has allowed three runs or less in six consecutive starts and he’s allowed one run or less in three of his past four.  Mikolas has four straight seasons posting a WHIP of 1.22 or better so I think there’s more positive regression coming as Mikolas 2023 WHIP is still currently 1.57. After Mikolas is the Cardinals bullpen, all the chatter was about how much of a mess the Cardinals were because of their April win/loss record but most of that can be attributed to terrible starting pitching and squandering opportunities with RISP.  The Cardinals bullpen has quietly been excellent, they enter play today 9th in MLB with a 3.76 bullpen ERA and that should continue to trend upward if the efforts from their starters continue to improve (like they have been for weeks now).  The Cardinals got off to a horrifically bad (and almost unexplainable) start that there’s still a ton of value to be had because at a glance the Cardinals are a “losing” team.  I don’t think that’s the case, there will be plenty of great spots to back what I still think is a big time contender in the National League and at this home price why not start here. Play on Cardinals -105 for 5% (or 5 units)