Recent Play Details

4% Arizona (4:05 ET): I was on the Pirates yesterday, +1.5, and with the benefit of hindsight I obviously wish I’d taken them on the ML instead. They crushed Zac Gallen and the D’backs 13-3 here at PNC Park, making it two big underdog wins in a row for the Buccos. I also had them (on the money line) Wednesday in Detroit when they won 8-0. The line was clearly inflated in both of those games as the Pirates had been struggling mightily prior, dropping 12 of 14 games while scoring just 22 runs total. But now we’re back in a position where we should be fading this team as I don’t think yesterday’s result is at all indicative of where these two clubs are at right now. 

The public was burned in each of those L2 Pirates’ games, choosing to fade 43-year old Rich Hill against the Tigers and then jumping on board Arizona’s Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen. But now they’re choosing to get behind Pittsburgh’s ace Mitch Keller, who admittedly has been sensational so far in 2023. Keller has allowed three runs or less in every start but one - when he was hit with four unearned runs against the Rays - and is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak coming into Saturday. But I believe him and the Pirates to be overvalued in this one. 

As mentioned above, the Pirates had been slumping mightily at the plate prior to the L2 games. It was some “cluster luck” last night as they shockingly scored seven runs off Gallen in the fourth inning. Don’t expect to see anything like that again here as this is a team that is only scoring 4.1 runs per game at home this season. The Diamondbacks send out rookie Brandon Pfaadt, their Minor League Pitcher of the Year from last season, and he is off his best big league start having held the Giants to just one hit (a solo HR) over five innings on Sunday. Arizona, who is 13-6 off a loss this season, is the better offensive team here (5.1 rpg) as well. 4% Arizona (Play to -105)