Boston is back to smashing the baseball, scoring 27 runs in their past 3 games after taking the series opener on Friday. This is nothing new for the Red Sox, who rank 3rd in both OPS as well as runs scored this season. Chris Sale has been on point as well, fresh off an outing where he went 8 innings deep and allowed just 1 run on 3 hits. Sale has a 3.78 FIP, indicating he’s been very unlucky and is due for positive regression.
Offense has been a serious problem for a San Diego team that’s in a freefall, losers of 8 of their past 9. Scoring has been an issue all year long for the Padres, as they rank near the bottom of the league in several key categories. Joe Musgrove’s analytics aren’t very good, and we’re seeing it translated on the field. He gave up 4 earned last time out and 7 two starts prior. We’ve seen Musgrove struggle with command and his hard hit% is well above league average. That all spells trouble against a Boston team that will punish mistakes. Take the Red Sox.
4% Play on Red Sox (929) as underdog, 3% as favorite
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