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Reds (6:40PM ET YES, BSOH, MLB.TV) – I decided to add one more for Friday so it’s double barrel action in the early wave of games when the Cincinnati Reds kick off their City Connect weekend with the first game of a three-game set against the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

I lost playing against the Yankees on Thursday but this is a prime letdown spot for the visitors so I’ll take another shot against the Bronx Bombers, this time with the benefit of a run head start.  The Yankees just finished up their most emotional series of the season taking three of four from a very good Blue Jays team so it’s very possible the Yanks come out flat on the road against the “lowly” Reds here.  The Yankees are winners of 11 of their last 16 games, they are playing far better than they were earlier this season but they are still lacking in some areas that have them profiling as a fade for me now that the market is all over them.  One of those areas is defense, the Yankees have some of the worst defensive metrics in MLB this season at a time where defense is more important than it’s been in years past due to the bigger bases and ban of the shift.  Aaron Judge has been absurd since returning from the IL but it’s worth noting he’s had a ton of exposure to the Blue Jays pitching staff and has seen very little of the pitchers the Reds will roll out this weekend.  I’ve watched a ton of Ben Lively (Reds starter) during his three seasons in KBO and I have reason to believe the former Samsung Lions RHP has a favorable matchup here.

Let’s talk about Ben Lively, he will make his first MLB start since 2018 but he hasn’t been out of baseball, he’s just been over playing ball in Korea for most of that time in KBO!  Shout out to Lively who worked his way back to the big leagues, he’s been strong in a pair of relief appearances since the Reds called him up from AAA Louisville and they have been impressed enough to give Lively the ball for a start here. Lively was fantastic during his time in KBO, his 4.14 career KBO ERA is misleading due to the fact Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the least pitcher friendly of all the ballparks in Korea but his 1.17 WHIP across three seasons was elite.  Lively had a strong season at AAA last year and had a 2.23 ERA at AAA this season before the Reds called him up on May 9th.  Lively is 31 years old, it wasn’t a given he would ever make it back to the big leagues so the magnitude of this start can’t be understated for Lively.  The Reds should be fired up here, as has been the case with teams unveiling their City Connect gear, and I think we could get a combination of Reds being fired up with the Yankees being flat here.

The Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt who comes off a terrible start against the Rays and he’s done absolutely nothing to suggest he should be laying -1.5 to the home Reds here.  Schmidt enters play with a 6.30 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, one of the worst marks in the league for a starting pitcher with 40 or more innings pitched, and the only reason he’s in the Yankees rotation is other guys being out with injury.  I just don’t think Schmidt is very good, his command has gotten worse as the season has progressed and his high strikeout numbers mask what are glaring flaws in his pitching.  If Schmidt wasn’t racking up strikeouts there’s no way he would still be in this Yankees rotation because his 1.65 WHIP is awful and not something you would typically see a team like the Yankees accept.  That being said, the Yankees have some injuries and he was a first rounder so it looks like they are just going to continue to hope Schmidt can figure out how to avoid grooving the occasional meatball and walking batters to become a more effective starting pitcher.  The Yankees managed to give their high leverage bullpen arms a day off yesterday but this is still a bullpen that has had to log a ton of innings this week. The Reds hit better at home and I think they can do enough off of Schmidt to be in the game in the later innings. 

In the end I think there’s real value getting the run head start with the Reds here.  This is a huge potential flat spot for the Yankees, the Reds had success against the Bronx Bombers last season and I think that continues here.  Play on Reds +1.5 (-103) for 4% (or 4 units)