Recent Play Details

Pirates (6:35PM ET BSAZ, ATTPT, MLB.TV) – A pair of close losses the past two days has offset our 2-0 Tuesday MLB sweep and it’s back to the drawing board on Friday as we head to the Steel City where the Pittsburgh Pirates kick off a three game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

This isn’t a fade of Zac Gallen but I am willing to go against the Diamondbacks when he pitches because he’s likely not going the distance and right now the Diamondbacks bullpen is one of the worst in the league.  Gallen does give length, but it’s unlikely he’s throwing a complete game as Arizona has needed two or more bullpen innings in eight of Gallen’s nine starts this season.  There’s also the possibility Gallen is mortal here and that’s been the case on the road this season where Gallen owns a 4.84 ERA in four road starts.  We also have the possibility of Pirates starter Johan Oviedo going toe to toe win Gallen as, when Oviedo has had his best stuff, he’s been lights out this year.  Pittsburgh has regressed as a team in recent weeks but this Pirates team is still playing winning baseball.  I think this Pirates team is far too capable on their home diamond for the Diamondbacks to spot them a run head start here. 

Again, this is hardly a play against Gallen, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and he’s 6-0 with a 1.16 ERA with 60 strikeouts and four walks across his last seven starts but I do think the Pirates can win (or at least cash this ticket) in spite of that here.  Gallen just had his longest outing of the season in his last start so the likelihood that he pitches deeper than that here is slim.  The Pirates beat Gallen once last season and Gallen’s road ERA is far worse than his numbers at home so there’s at least a chance Pittsburgh scrapes something across off Gallen at some point here.  Bryan Reynolds broke out of a slump on Wednesday and the 8 spot the Pirates put up in their win over the Tigers might be the spark this dreadful Pirates offense needed to get going.  If the Pirates can’t get going against Gallen they will have opportunities whenever this Diamondbacks bullpen gets involved as I have the Arizona relief unit rating out as a bottom five bullpen in baseball this season.  The total of 7.5 suggests runs will be at a premium in this contest so this could very well be a 3-2 or 2-1 type of game. If the Diamondbacks do have a lead they will struggle to close it out (blowing leads late has been their thing of late) and that gives us a great chance to at least bring this within a run and cash this ticket the hard way. 

The Pirates counter here with Johan Oviedo, he struggled for a few weeks after a hot start but he fired five innings of one run ball against the Orioles last time out and I’m wondering if we can catch his upswing here.  The surface numbers aren’t great for Oviedo but there was a stretch back in April where he had thrown six or more innings in three straight starts giving up just two runs across 19.2 innings.  Oviedo’s problem the past few times out was he was catching way too much of the plate and teams were crushing the ball against him.  Oviedo made adjustments in his last start, he did walk five as a result of trying to keep the ball off the plate but the Orioles made very little hard contact and were only able to score one run on four hits. I like Oviedo to build on that here, he should have a little confidence back after a good start and being at home so I think that will give him the confidence to throw more strikes.  As long as Oviedo is respectable, the Pirates turn the ball over to a bullpen that has been very good this season as the Pirates have had a Top 5-10 bullpen unit all year.  I see Pittsburgh with a huge advantage in the late innings of this game, if they can find away to hang around while Gallen is in they should get us the money and very likely win here.

I won’t be surprised if the Pirates win this game but the value is getting a +1.5 head start at this cheap price.  We are getting this value because of Gallen being on the mound for the visitors but everything else here favors the Pirates and I’ll hope that’s enough to keep this one within a run (if the Pirates don’t win).  Play on Pirates +1.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)