Recent Play Details

SSG Landers (4AM ET Naver TV) – Friday’s KBO split down the middle as KT gets it done but we drop one at plus money with Hanwha, no harm no foul as no vig was lost there and we will move on to Saturday morning to see if we can take another step forward when the SSG Landers take on the Lotte Giants in the second game of a three game set at Busan Sajik Baseball Stadium in Busan, South Korea.

Yesterday on Twitter Spaces (it’s still up on my Twitter @topflightsi) my co-host Freddie Mills outlined a potential scenario that (if it happened which it did) would create an excellent “PLAY ON” spot here for SSG.  First, as we predicted would be the case, SSG got Shin-Soo Choo back in a pinch hitter role and I fully expect him to make his return to the starting lineup for this game.  Second, we got a Lotte win with the Giants using SIX relivers to get the job done so that combined with the fact Jun-Yong Choi is still out means Lotte is going to be shorthanded in the bullpen department here.  There’s a clear-cut starting pitching advantage with Kwang-Hyun Kim (still one of the best arms in this league) over Dan Straily who hasn’t looked nearly as sharp as he did during the stretch run last year.  Lotte’s lineup takes a hit with Zack Reks being out while SSG possesses the most potent lineup in KBO and coming off a loss this is the perfect bounce back spot for the top-rated Landers here.

Kwang-Hyun Kim gets the ball for SSG, I called him one of the best arms in KBO earlier but one could argue that he’s regressed in the same manner that Straily has so far this season. Kwang enters play with a 4.08 ERA and a gaudy 1.58 WHIP but much of that was accrued in April while Kim was dealing with an injury. Kim has turned in back to back quality starts, in his start prior he gave up just one run over five innings against KT and Lotte hasn’t seen him yet this season which should give him a nice edge here.  Lotte has been great offensively but Reks being out is a big blow so I have no choice but to downgrade Lotte’s offense due to that.  SSG’s bullpen has been fantastic, the Landers 2.19 bullpen ERA is BY FAR the best mark in KBO this season so even if Kwang and Straily are even here SSG will have far better options and depth in the later innings of this game. On top of having the better/deeper bullpen SSG is well rested after getting a rainout on Thursday while Lotte had to play Hanwha.  I personally still think Kwang is the better option but even if he’s an equal to Straily all the other intangibles favor the Landers here.

Straily is one of the more “household” names in this league, he’s one of the more tenured former MLB players in this league and led KBO with 205 strikeouts back in 2020.  Straily wasn’t as good in 2021 and left Korea to try to work his way back to MLB in 2022 but came back to Korea to finish the season with Lotte last year (ended up being really good) and stayed on with the Giants for the 2023 campaign.  Straily will turn 35 in November, it looked like his skill set was starting to decline during his time in AAA last season but he managed to come over to Korea and put together a great second half for Lotte. He looked similarly bad at the start of this season, he’s managed good outings of late against some of the weaker lineups in the league but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give up a few runs against a SSG lineup that obliterates right handed pitching.  One thing that’s for certain is Straily isn’t consistently pitching as deep into games as he once did so Lotte will need innings from their bullpen to get to the finish line here. With Jong out and others potentially unavailable due to recent use even if Lotte has a lead it’s going to be difficult for the Giants to protect it against a relentless SSG lineup in the later innings of this game. 

I was going to bet SSG here either way at the right number but the Landers coming off a loss makes be love this spot for SSG at just about any price.  SSG are the defending champs of KBO and a big time contender, I think the “jury is still out” on Lotte and I’ll play on some Giants regression against the current top team and one of the best pitchers in the history of this league.  Play on SSG Landers -130 for 4% (or 4 units)