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6:35 PM ET -- MLB
951 Arizona Diamondbacks
952 Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: 951 ARIZONA First 5 Innings RL -0.5 (-130)
List Pitchers: Gallen & Oviedo
Bet Size: 3%
Line Parameters:
3% play at -140 or better
2% play at -141 to -150
Johan Oviedo starts for the Pirates. Oviedo has had four straight poor outings. His last start looks good on the surface, as he only allowed one run in 5 innings at Baltimore. But a closer look shows that Oviedo walked 5 batters and had a 1.80 WHIP & 7.02 xFIP, so he was very lucky to only allow a run. Oviedo is 0-5 (Teams' Record) as a home dog, including 0-3 with the Pirates (Average score: Opponent 7.33, Pirates 0.67).
Arizona is the 6th-best righty-hitting team in MLB, producing a 112 wRC+ (12% above average). Arizona is 8-2 in road games against a RHSP, averaging 5.3 rpg. The D'backs own a nice 121 wRC+ against RHP over the last week.
Zac Gallen gets the start for 'Zona. Gallen does his best work at home, but he's still a pretty tough customer on the road. Gallen is off a pair of really good starts in which he allowed just 3 runs in 14.2 innings with a WHIP under 1.
Pittsburgh's current hitters have struggled against Gallen, producing a .156 average, .220 wOBA, and .292 xSLG in 36 plate appearances against him. The Pirates own MLB's worst wRC+ against RHP over the last week at 23, which is a whopping 77% below average! Pittsburgh owns a 94 wRC+ against RHP at home and 89 overall, both subpar numbers.
The Pirates are coming off an 8-0 win at Detroit on Wednesday. That's noteworthy because since the start of last season, Pittsburgh is 1-10 (0-6 at home, Average score: Opponents 7.5, Pirates 3.5) when coming off a shutout win.
5-0 (fade Oviedo as a home dog)
8-2 (Arizona on road vs RHSP)
6-0 (fade Pirates at home off shutout win)
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19-2 90.5% combined angles
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