Recent Play Details

3% Take Miami – Boston UNDER (#537-538)

The database shows that by the time we get to the Conference Finals, NBA Game 2’s trend to the Under; cashing only 32 Overs in the last 80 tries.  Both coaches have spent the last two days talking about defensive adjustments after the two teams combined for 239 points in Game 1, both teams shooting well over 50% from the floor and combining for 26 made three pointers on 43% shooting from beyond the arc.  Miami had a 46 point quarter; the Celtics had a 66 point half.  I’m NOT expecting more of the same tonight.

It’s not like these are weak defensive squads.  Both teams were Top 10 in defensive efficiency in the regular season; and neither squad has declined here in the playoffs.  Boston has held their opponent to 102 or less twice in their last three games and four times in their last seven.  Miami has held their opponent to 101 or less in four of their last seven as well.  Throw in a long term 67% angle of playoff teams at -7 or higher off a loss staying UNDER the total and the case for a relatively low scoring affair tonight is perfectly clear.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 214.5 or higher, 2% at 214 or lower