Recent Play Details

5% Big Ticket: Take St Louis – Dodgers OVER (#955-956)

The Dodgers play the majority of their games in ballparks where scoring is deflated.  The ball doesn’t carry at Dodgers Stadium, or in San Diego against the Padres or in San Francisco against the Giants; all notoriously lower scoring ballparks.

LA is 24-20 with one push to the Over this season.  They are 13-11 to the Under in 24 previous home games.  They went 4-2 to the Under at San Diego and at San Fran.  And they are 11-3-1 to the Over in every other game in every other park that they’ve played in; 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games in this subset.  Playing the Dodgers OVER the total in non-pitcher friendly ballparks makes a whole lot of sense to this bettor; an Under-the Radar angle worth riding again tonight.

To say that the ball was carrying at Busch Stadium last night is something of an understatement. The two teams combined for nine home runs and 24 runs scored.  Neither bullpen is fresh today – there’s ample room for late inning shenanigans should we need them, and the two pens combined to allow 13 runs last night.  The weather hasn’t changed, and the wind is blowing out to right field again this evening…..

Both line-ups are in solid current form.  The Cardinals are 6-3 to the Over in their last nine games overall; scoring 70 runs in those nine games (just shy of eight runs PER GAME).  St Louis is also 7-2 to the Over in their last nine at home. The Dodgers have scored seven runs or more three times in their last four overall.

I’m NOT listing starting pitchers here.  If either starter gets scratched, their replacement isn’t going to be an upgrade. With 8.5’s (-120) still widely available as I write this, anything below 9 is worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take St Louis – LA Dodgers OVER

Line Parameter: 5% at 8.5 or lower (up to -130), 4% at 9 or higher