Recent Play Details

KT Wiz (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – Kiwoom gets us back in the KBO win column on Thursday morning and I’ll aim to build on that with a pair of KBO best bets on Friday as we start things off with the opener of a three game weekend series between the KT Wiz and Doosan Bears at Suwon KT Wiz Park in Suwon, South Korea. 

I’m committed to the fade of Doosan and, as long as the prices are playable, I will continue to do so throughout the weekend.  Doosan lost yesterday (best bet winner for us) but were still in that game until the 8th inning and Doosan starter Dong-Ju Kim made it just 3.1 innings so the already compromised Bears bullpen is decimated heading into the weekend.  Doosan has taken a step forward offensively in recent weeks but the majority of their success has come against LHP so tough RHP Sang-Back Um could be a challenging matchup for the Bears here.  KT’s bullpen got healthier earlier this week so, while these have been two of the worst bullpens in KBO all season, I think Doosan’s tired bullpen is in far worse shape than a KT relief unit that brought in some reinforcements.  Doosan starter Seung-Yong Choi has been a fade for me, I can’t see him going more than 5-6 innings so KT either hits him or hits the Bears bullpen but one way or another finds themselves in front here.

KT has also hit the ball better and the Wiz have excelled against LHP so it makes this an even better spot to fade Doosan starter Seung-Yong Choi.  I also like the fact Choi pitched against KT earlier this season and had success because I think that puts Wiz hitters in position to make adjustments and have some success this time around.  Doosan had five straight wins entering play yesterday so the Bears have played well and I have to imagine if Choi is getting hit hard the Bears will use their scrub relievers to finish out this game and try to reset their bullpen entering the weekend when they will have Alcantara and Won-Joon Choi (their two best starters who are currently active) set to pitch.  The only way Doosan is going all out to win this game is if they have a lead when Choi exits but even then this is still a tired and downright poor Bears bullpen that will be asked to see out this game. KT has been awful offensively at times but the Wiz have improved in recent weeks and this feels like the series (a step down from LG Twins) where KT might break out.  This matchup is certainly favorable for it and I really don’t think KT has trouble scoring a few runs here.

Doosan, on the other hand, might have an issue there as they run into KT starter Sang-Back Um.  Last year was a breakout year for Um and he’s been nearly as good this season despite having to work around an injury and having some general bad luck.  Giving up the timely hit is the reason Um enters play with a 1-3 record but his 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP suggest he deserves better.  He’s also been victimized by a lack on run support but I outlined in the previous paragraph why I don’t think that will be an issue here.  KT had one of the best bullpens in KBO last season so it’s likely the Wiz trend out of the bullpen basement now that they have some of their regular relievers back. Even if KT continues to give up the key hit I have a feeling the Wiz have more of those than Doosan in this game to put them ahead at some point.

KT is trending toward being a “BET ON” while Doosan is a hard fade for me as long as there’s value in doing so.  The number is right on the edge here but I see enough advantages for KT where I can’t pass this one up.  Play on KT Wiz -130 for 4% (or 4 units)