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Blue Jays (7:07PM ET YES, SNET, MLB Network) – The Nats fall short 4-3 for us on Wednesday but we are already back in the win column as Kiwoom gets us the money on Thursday morning.  I’m heading to MLB and North of the border in search of a Thursday sweep and it’s the series finale of a budding rivalry between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

From a fan perspective this series has been incredible, on Monday we have Aaron Judge being accused for cheating after hitting a couple bombs, Tuesday saw Domingo German get ejected for a sticky substance and coaches yelling at each other across the field to Wednesday where Danny Jansen walks it off for the Jays on a three run bomb in the 10th inning.  Normally I could care less about the fanfare but I think it’s relevant here because the Jays should be fired up beyond belief to come out and split this series on their home field tonight.  I also see some big time underlying value in a Yankees fade due to how much they have used their bullpen the past few couple days.  If you have followed me all year you should know Cortes is a “fade” for me (for the most part) and after three errors yesterday (something I said could be an issue for the Yankees on some of my shows prior to the season) I’ve downgraded the Yankees to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league (a metric I’m putting more stock into this season due to the rule changes).  I’ve had the Blue Jays the better of these two teams since prior to the season starting, my opinion there hasn’t changed and I’ll be shocked if the Jays don’t salvage their series split here.

The Yankees give the ball to Nestor Cortes and I don’t think it’s rocket science at this point that something is up with the All-Star southpaw and for the worse.  Cortes has a 8.53 ERA in his last four starts and has given up five bombs which doesn’t bode well for him at all against a Blue Jays lineup that mashes left handed pitching.  Cortes gave up six runs in 4.1 innings against the Rays last time out and the issue for Cortes has been the fact he’s gotten lit up the second and third time through the batting order.  On most days that would be manageable but here that puts the Yankees in a tough situation as they needed six innings from their bullpen on Tuesday once German got tossed and four high leverage relief innings from their top bullpen guys last night. Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta have both pitched in back to back games while Michael King threw 21 pitches last night and is never used on back to back days.  The Yankees bullpen is one of their bigger assets so the fact it’s compromised gives Toronto a HUGE advantage here.  The Jays very well might break this open off Cortes but if they don’t there will be plenty of opportunities for another late win for the home team. 

Toronto counters here with Jose Berrios who has been on a nice run of late and should be respectable here.  Berrios has a 1.53 ERA at the Rogers Centre this season, he will give up the occasional long ball but for the most part he’s keeping traffic off the basepaths and I think the Jays score enough to overcome a home run or two here.  The Jays bullpen rating wise is a notch below the Yankees but I prefer the Blue Jays relief staff today because they have far better availability here.  Blue Jays relievers have a Top 5 strikeout rate in MLB and I’m not seeing anything out of the ordinary with their numbers so I’m confident in saying Toronto has a Top 10 bullpen in baseball this season.  Jordan Romano threw two innings last night but it was his first action in four days and he only threw 23 pitches so I fully expect him to be available here.  The Jays have gotten back to back seven inning outings from their starters so their top guys have been lightly used the past couple days and that puts the Blue Jays in far better position to close out this game. 

I think the Blue Jays are the better team so off the top I like them at home in a spot to split a series.  With all the intangibles I think Blue Jays at this price are best bet material.  Play on Blue Jays -127 for 4% (or 4 units)