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Germany Bundesliga

(202481) Borussia Dortmund at (202482) FC Augsburg

I love to ride the Dortmund train anytime they are home, but when they are away, they simply aren’t the same team.  In fact, they are winless in their last six away matches, and while some of their opponents include Bayern, a Cup match vs Leipzig and a Champions League match vs Chelsea, they also failed to beat Bochum, Stuttgart and Schalke, settling for draws in all three.  Laying -1.5 seems like much too big of a number here.

Augsburg have been steady at home all season, but even better of late.  They own a 6-4-6 record on the Bundesliga season but have just one loss in eight matches since the WC break including wins vs Leverkusen and Union Berlin.  Their one loss did come by two goals vs Koln, however.

xG doesn’t show great numbers for Augsburg at home as they have a -0.40 xG differential per 90 minutes, but Dortmund on the road is not the dominant team they are at home, averaging just a +0.20 xG differential and have won by more than one goal just three times all season.

Augsburg has also given Dortmund fits over the years.  They don’t win often, but they keep it close.  In the last 13 meetings overall, Dortmund have won by two goals or more just three times including just once over the last three seasons.  Augsburg has also covered this number in five of the last six meetings at home.

Augsburg are four points clear of the relegation zone, so they still have plenty to fight for in this match while Dortmund of course trail Bayern by just one point in the title race.  However, Dortmund just needs to win and if they lead by just one goal late, they will not be pushing for anything additional, rather just trying to see the match out to get their three points.

TAKE AUGSBURG +1.5

Line Parameter: 4% to -125 or at +1.25