3% Take Miami (#533)
I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. The Heat have a significant rest/freshness edge over a Boston team that was just taken to the limit in their seven game series against the 76ers; a HUGE factor when we look at the long term Game 1 NBA Playoff trends. I’ll take Eric Spoelstra over Joe Mazzulla when it comes to getting ready for a new series in a relatively short timeframe. The Heat at +7.5 or higher, full season? How about 6-1 ATS, which does NOT include their SU win right here in Boston when they were only +7. They won SU on the road to open their series with the Bucks and followed that up with a SU win on the road in Game 1 against the Knicks. Boston has lost SU at home three times in their last five tries here in the postseason, all as favorites of -7.5 or higher. Every quote coming out of the Heat’s locker room is a positive one about their chances in this series, but Miami’s power rating is still lagging behind, thanks to an underachieving regular season. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take the Heat.
Line Parameter: 3% at +7.5 or higher, 2% at +7 or lower
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