Recent Play Details

4% Take St Louis (#958) (action)

Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro- Cardinals write-up from this past weekend when they were sweeping the Red Sox in Boston.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities:

“No team in baseball underachieved more than the St Louis Cardinals in April and early May.  This team has the best roster, top to bottom, in the NL Central – frankly it’s not that close.  But their starting staff struggled early, their bullpen got overused, their lineup hit into more double plays than any other team in the NL and suddenly, the Cardinals were sitting with a 10-24 record, at the bottom of the standings.  Since that low point – a stretch where the Cards went 3-15 over an 18 game span – Oliver Marmol’s squad has won seven of their last nine.  And the Cards potent lineup is finally starting to hit – four runs or more in ten of their last twelve; averaging more than six runs per game during their current 7-2 hot streak.”

Milwaukee is struggling to hit lefties like promising Cardinals call-up Matthew Liberatore, the #1 pitching prospect in the organization.  Liberatore got a taste of the big leagues last year, and threw five scoreless innings against the Brewers.  The Brewers bullpen behind Corbin Burnes is clearly problematic today after Wade Miley’s short stint last night – it’s the fourth consecutive game where the ‘pen got used extensively following a relatively short outing from the starter. And there’s legitimate urgency for the home team, sitting in last place, looking to take a series against their first place, divisional rival foe.  I’m going ‘action’ not listed pitchers because if Burnes get scratched for any reason, we’ll be getting the best of the number…..potentially by a lot  Take the Cardinals.

Line Parameter: 4% at -110 or better, 3% at -111 or worse