Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

***** PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean betting all the money you have.  It also does NOT mean betting money you don't have.  It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one.  BE SMART!  BET SMART! *****

7:45 PM ET -- MLB 

957 Milwaukee Brewers 
958 St. Louis Cardinals 

Play: 958 ST. LOUIS +103   

List Pitchers: Burnes & Liberatore   

Bet Size: 5% 

Line Parameters: 
5% play at -110 or better 
4% play at -111 to -115 
3% play at -116 to -120 
2% play at -121 to -125    

Takes balls to make a 5% play against an ace like Corbin Burnes, but the situation looks right to me.  The line seems to tell the story as well.  We have the NL West-leading Brewers with their ace on the mound, taking on the last-place Cardinals with a starter who is making his 2023 MLB debut.  And St. Louis is only even money?

Despite an average line of -141, the Brewers are only 3-3 with Burnes on the mound in St. Louis.  That drops to 0-3 (average line -132) if favored by less than -145.  Burnes isn't as dominant as he has been in previous seasons. His K/9 before this season was 11.69, but that has dropped to a career-low 7.69 this season.  Burnes' BB/9 was 2.44 coming into this season, but is up to 3.55 in '23.  His K-BB% was 25.5% coming into 2023, but is only 11.3% this season.  Burnes had a gem of a start in Arizona in mid-April, but his other 3 road starts have been very mediocre.

The Cardinals do hit RHP well.  St. Louis owns a 116 wRC+ against righties (#3 in MLB), including 130 at home and 198 (98% above average) over the last week.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore gets the start for the Cardinals.  Liberatore is making his 2023 MLB debut after starting seven games for St. Louis last season.  The Cards were 5-2 in his seven starts, including 2-0 at home when the young lefty tossed 10 shutout innings (5 against these Brewers).

Milwaukee has had its problems hitting LHP.  The Brewers' 77 wRC+ against southpaws ranks third-worst in MLB, and its 54 wRC+ against LHP on the road (46% below average) ranks dead last in MLB.  Milwaukee is averaging just 3.2 runs in road games against LHSP, including only 2.7 runs per game under the lights.

The Cardinals are coming on after a very slow start, winning seven of their last nine games.

I'm normally not one to trust bullpens, although it has worked out lately.  But I can see a scenario where Burnes exits with the game tied or maybe even up a run, only to have his bullpen blow it.  The Brewers pen has been terrible on the road (5.59 ERA, 1.59 WHIP).

MLB SITUATIONAL ANGLE: Play AGAINST road teams off a divisional win as an underdog of at least +130 against today's opponent (MILWAUKEE), if their win percentage is 54% to 62% and their opponent's win percentage is 38% to 46%.  Fading these teams like Milwaukee is 21-5 (81%) since 2004, including 8-0 over the last 8.  This angle is already 3-0 this season.

3-0 (fade MIL w/Burnes at STL, line < -145)
2-0 (STL w/Liberatore at home)
8-0 (MLB angle last 8)
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13-0 combined situation angles