Recent Play Details

Italy Serie A

(201277) Lazio at (201278) Udinese

Lazio is the 8th ranked team in Serie A in xP (expected points) behind the obvious Top-6 and even Torino.  They have conceded just 28 goals this season but on a much higher 41.5 xGA.  That 13.5 goal overperformance defensively is 4th biggest in all of the Big 5 leagues.

Those results have finally started to surface with just one win over their last five matches.  They lost to Torino, AC Milan and Inter and most recently failed to beat Lecce at home, settling for a 2-2 draw last weekend.

Meanwhile Udinese continue to plug along with just four losses over their last 12 matches but at home, they have been very tough to beat.  Since the WC break, they have just one loss at home in ten matches and on the season, they have lost just twice.  They have beaten AC Milan, Inter, Roma and Fiorentina this season while also drawing vs Napoli and Atalanta.  There is no reason to think they can’t get a home result here vs a faltering Lazio side.

The one negative could be argued the Udinese doesn’t have anything to play for, but I still expect them to come out and fight at home vs a quality side for their fans.  xP has Udinese at 47 points, just 4.5 behind Lazio instead of the 19 points that the table is showing.  If the actual table had these teams separated by just 4-5 points, do you think we would be getting the double chance at home at a very good price?

TAKE UDINESE +0.5

Line Parameter: 4% to +0.25, pay up to -130 to get +0.5