We're taking Flamengo to win and cover at home on Sunday against Corinthians over in Brazilian Serie A.
Full Breakdown
Short week for both teams heading into this one as Flamengo travel to Fluminense and Corinthians travel to Atletico MG in some midweek cup action.
However, in terms of the league, Flamengo look to have righted the ship coming off back-to-back wins against Goias and Bahia respectively across recent games, which is no doubt welcome after a disappointing run of three straight defeats prior to that.
Flamengo have been especially dangerous at home this year, with no team scoring more goals per game at home this season than Flamengo have, as well as owning the league's third-highest offensive xG rating behind only Fortaleza and Palmeiras also.
They face a Corinthians side in this one who are currently mired in a five-game winless run themselves, and have lost all of their three road games this season also, allowing eight goals across those three defeats.
That's to be expected however as Corinthians own the league's third-worst expected goal differential this season, as well as the second-lowest offensive xG rating also, no surprise given their defense is allowing a mammoth 18.3 shots per game at the back away from home this season.
That's a recipe for disaster against one of the most attacking teams in the league on Sunday as Flamengo have not only won seven of their last ten matchups against Corinthians in this venue, but have also scored a massive 22 goals across their last seven home matches as well.
Take the home side Flamengo in this one to do some damage on Sunday with a comprehensive win and cover against an over-matched Corinthians team in Maracana this weekend.
PLAY: FLAMENGO -1 (-125)
*Line good to -160, -161 > (No play)