Road teams in the Conference Finals or Finals are 9-2 (81.8%) ATS when their opponent is coming off a game 7.
The Celtics do not look like the same dominant group from last years playoffs and a lot of it has to do with coach Mazzula. So far, he's been slow to make adjustments and hasn't done the best running sets to make life easier offensively. They are coming off a hard fought 7 game series where they fell down 2-3 but won the last 2 games. That takes a lot of energy out of a squad to rally like that. They will face a heat team with the rest advantage, coaching advantage, and the most trustworthy player in the series (Jimmy Butler). That lines up well for the Heat to come in and steal game 1, and I believe you get max effort because of it. Even if they cannot pull off the outright win, I trust coach Spo to have a gameplan ready for his team to keep things close.