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4:10 PM ET -- MLB
975 St. Louis Cardinals
976 Boston Red Sox
Play: OVER 10 (-105)
List Pitchers: Matz & Sale
Bet Size: 3%
Line Parameters:
3% play at 10 or better
2% play at 10.5
My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:
-> St. Louis owns a 112 wRC+ against lefties this season (12% above average).
-> St. Louis is averaging 5.4 runs per game against lefties on the road.
-> Steven Matz allowed 1 earned run in his last start. Since coming to the Cardinals last season, Matz owns a 7.76 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in starts after allowing 2 or fewer runs in his previous start (8.15 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road).
-> Current Boston hitters own a .338 average, .389 wOBA, and .454 xSLG in 77 plate appearances against Matz.
-> Boston owns a 126 wRC+ against lefties at home (26% above average).
-> Boston averaged 6.75 runs in four home day games against lefty starters.
-> Since 2021, the OVER is 6-1 when Chris Sale starts at Fenway with the total set higher than 9. There were an average of 15 runs scored in those seven games.
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