Recent Play Details

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wt.buzz/db

10:10 PM ET -- MLB

909 San Diego Padres  
910 Los Angeles Dodgers

Play: First 5 Innings OVER 5 (+100)  

List Pitchers: Snell & May  

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 5 or better

My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

This is a very rare first-half over play for me.  But we had this exact same pitching matchup of Blake Snell vs. Dustin May just six days ago in San Diego.  Snell went 6 innings and the only hit he allowed was a 2-run homer.  May tossed 6 shutout innings in that game.  And now we get a F5 total of 4.5 that gets bet UP to 5?  Looks like an easy Under, right?  Not so fast.  When we get an immediate pitching rematch like this and the pitchers dominated that first matchup, the hitters usually are able to make the necessary adjustments and are more successful in the rematch.  I'm banking on that being the case tonight.  I really think 5 is the fewest amount of runs we'll see through the first 5 innings.