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At UFC 288, Gilbert Burns faces Belal Muhammad…

Sit back, grab a Casamigo and let's talk co-main event… 

This is one of those situations where one fighter's main path is voided out, limiting winning options. No doubt Belal's main path has been utilizing a wrestle heavy approach. Finding opportunities to smother opponents up against fence or a good old lay and pray strategy. While it's annoying and a very boring style to watch it's been effective. Gaining control time chipping away on the scorecards. Most recently Belal defeated Sean Brady in a bout Brady looked absolutely horrible. Now it could've been credit to Belal's pace and boxing yet just appeared as if Sean never got going and completely gassed out round 2. While Gilbert Burns is coming off nice wins over Jorge Masvidal via decision and Neil Magny via round 1 submission victory. The most impressive bout was actually his losing performance against Khamazt Chimaev. Burns dug deep battling it out for 3 hard rounds against a beast. He was able to rock Khamazt, wrestle with him and strike on the feet. Close fight in which I believe Belal would be dominated against Khamazt. Stylistically speaking, Burns should basically have Belal covered in all areas. Maybe only slight advantage in cardio to Belal yet I rate Burns cardio very high. In fact Gilbert pushed for this co-main event to be 5 rounds as Belal said not long ago he was 210 pounds and preferred a catchweight bout. Burns declined catchweight as he's seeking to continue stacking these Welterweight wins climbing the ranks. I fully expect Belal to come in on weight with no issues but… the fact he's seeking a catchweight does mean he was iffy on being 100% on point by May 6th. If fight plays out on the feet, I believe Burns has all the advantages to hurt Belal and out strike him. Most of Belal's combinations are built around closing distance to latch onto opposition to grapple. Burns would absolutely welcome grappling and is far more superior to anything Belal could do on the ground. 

At -125 with implied probability of nearly 55%, provides plenty of value on a fighter I believe has all advantages anywhere fight goes. 

5% MAX PLAY: Gilbert Burns (-125)