3% Tennessee (2:40 ET): Not accounting for the Zeigler injury, I would make this line Tennessee -4.5! So I've got to jump on the Volunteers here as underdogs, even though Duke is playing exceptionally well as of late. The Blue Devils feel like a very “public” side on Saturday.
Tennessee failed to cover in the first round against Louisiana, winning by only three (58-55) as 11.5-point favorites. But they were up as many as 18. I'm comfortable here casting my lot with the team that is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency.
ShotQuality numbers said Duke should have won by only 1 against Oral Roberts, which is a little surprising to me as I watched that game and the Blue Devils really dominated from start to finish. But the moment also seemed a little big for ORU, something I'm not worried about here with Tennessee. I'm taking the points, purely based on a power ratings perspective. 3% Tennessee (Play to +1)
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