Recent Play Details

FINNs WEST REGION 2ND RD TOP of the TICKET I  -  UCLA Bruins -7.0 (-110)  |  the spread position in this West Regional Round of 32 is good with UCLA -8 points or fewer 
3% game rating

My WagerTalk home page free play for today came from The Dance and the game in which I am supporting the Bruins against an overvalued Wildcats outfit that somehow finished second in the Big 10 regular season. 

The complimentary selection, position if you will, was a play Under the Total, which I didn't release in an official form but for transparency personally played in a same game parlay at DraftKings in this second-round matchup. 

I wrote in the Pick to Click breakdown the following; 

-----

(815) Northwestern Wildcats at (816) UCLA Bruins -7, 126.5 
Pick to Click is a play Under the Total

The optics of the Big 10 Conference and the leagues' overall strength took a hit on Friday when the Purdue Boilermakers lost as the East Region No. #1 seed to #16 seeded Fairleigh Dickinson. It was only the second time in the history of the tournament's 64-team bracket that a No. #1 seed has lost to a No. #16 seed  The Big 10, according to my personal weighted power rankings, is the most overvalued college basketball team in Division I play. The #BIG as a whole has been an overrated campus commodity the entire season.

The matchup tonight between the No. #7 seed Northwestern Wildcats and No. #2 seed UCLA Bruins is arguably the biggest mismatch of the 2nd Round. The offensive efficiency rating of Northwestern is skewed due to the conference's misleading power numbers.  The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are the league's lone program to register a Top 15 defensive efficiency mark in Division 1 this season. The Northwestern squad enters Saturday's action as the 18th-best defense, in KenPom's weighted efficiency ranking.

KenPom's conference-only offensive metrics find the Big 10 with three teams either elite or borderline elite with Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan owning the top three spots on the chart. All things equal KenPom offers a view of the Big 10 for what it truly is, pedestrian. The Wildcats rank ninth out of 14 Big 10 programs in offensive efficiency and 7th on the defensive side of the court. Northwestern's opponent today,  UCLA, is a notch or two above average offensively when compared to the rest of Division I. They sit atop amateur basketball's defensive charts. Even without an injured Jaylen Clark, the Bruins are the best defense that Northwestern will have faced all season. Evidence of this will become transparent when UCLA holds the Wildcats to 59 or fewer total points in today's matchup. The Finn Factor Pick to Click is a play Under the Total.

-----

The comment that I expect the Bruins to be extremely sound defensively in this contest, and aggressive defensively forcing the Wildcats into poor shot quality, ultimately finding the matchup significantly favorable for Mick's men to hold Northwestern to 59 points or less makes a play on the spread as favorable, more so if the defensive formula for defending Northwester turns into transition points, the stronger limb of the Bruins and Under the Total in this Golden 1 Center Cali Capital contest. 

UCLA Bruins -7.0 (-110)