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4% Over Celta Vigo/Espanyol (1:30 ET): I’m somewhat surprised we’re able to get a total of 2.0 for this Saturday La Liga fixture as I expect the two sides to combine for a few goals. Celta Vigo are the side in better form at the moment as they’re unbeaten in their last four (two wins and two draws) with three clean sheets. However, the Sky Blues have put three goals on the board two times in the last three matches, including an impressive 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano last week that has them 11th in the table at the moment. Celta is likely to continue scoring today, but I think their clean sheet run is due to end. 

That’s because Espanyol home matches have a habit of being high-scoring. No side in La Liga has seen the “both teams to score” prop cash more at home and Espanyol are also #1 in home matches with 3+ goals scored. Now the White & Blues could really use a win Saturday as B2B away losses (2-1 to Real Valladolid and 3-1 to Real Madrid) have them 15th in the table and just one point outside the relegation zone. The form at home hasn’t been great, but if there is one thing that should give Espanyol some confidence here it’s the fact they already beat Celta away this season, 3-1 in the Copa del Rey. 

So we’ve already seen these sides combine for four goals once this season and I could see that happening again here. Not only do Espanyol’s home matches tend to be high-scoring, but the same can be said for Celta away matches, which have averaged 2.8 xG since the World Cup break. Furthermore, we’ve seen three or more total goals scored in three of Celta’ last five away matches against bottom 10 sides. It’s been seven straight matches for Espanyol conceding at least 1.2 xG. On the flip side, only seven La Liga sides (six top half) have scored more goals this season. This number is too low. 4% Over Celta Vigo/Espanyol (Play to 2.25)