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3% Brentford (11:00 AM ET): Two Premier League sides, one in the top half of the table (Brentford) and the other (Leicester City) in the bottom half, meet on the pitch Saturday. After having a 12-match unbeaten run snapped last weekend (1-0 at Everton), Brentford ran away to a 2-0 victory over Southampton midweek, moving themselves into 8th place and keeping their European hopes alive for next season. Now the Bees get to return home, where they’ve lost only once all year and that was to league leaders Arsenal. Their xGD (expected goal difference) here at the Brentford Community Stadium is +5.7 for the year. 

Leicester has finished in the top half of the EPL table five years in a row, but that run will surely come to an end here in 2022/23 as the Foxes find themselves down in 16th place and five straight losses have them firmly in relegation battle. They’re currently out of the drop zone only on GD as Leicester is level on points with both West Ham and Nottingham Forest. I don’t like this matchup for the Foxes at all as they struggle to finish in the final third and Brentford is excellent defensively (1.2 non-penalty xG allowed per 90). Leicester actually have seven more goals than expected this season. 

The Leicester defense isn’t particularly good either. Only Forest and Bournemouth, two of the three newly promoted sides this season (both of whom may be relegated), have conceded more goals this Premier League season. All things told, I think this is an excellent price on Brentford at home as they are pretty clearly the better side. Leicester has been somewhat of a “bogey” team in the past for the Bees, but it’s difficult to look past the Foxes’ recent form as they’ve been outscored 8-1 over the L4 league matches and were bounced from the FA Cup by a second-tier side. Two of their three away wins since late December have come against lower level sides. 3% Brentford (Play to -130)