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Princeton (6:10PM ET TNT) – It’s another 2-0 sweep on Friday and a winner on our 5% MAX BET with St Mary’s pulling away from VCU.  That’s now NINE straight winners dating back to our Texas win last Saturday night, we are ROLLING through the CBB postseason and I’m coming back with another 5% MAX BET on Saturday in the South Region where the #15 seed Princeton Tigers take on the #7 seed Missouri Tigers at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

This is a DREAM matchup for Princeton and I feel like the “Ivy” Tigers are going to be the double-digit seed that makes a run this season.  I’ve now cashed back to back bets on Princeton as a dog, normally the “value” would start to disappear after that but Missouri also won their R64 game huge and this is such a good matchup for Princeton that I’d be willing to bet this at just about any number because I think Princeton wins this game.  I talked about Princeton being an excellent rebounding team ahead of the Arizona game and the Tigers went toe to toe with Wildcats (an elite power conference rebounding team) on the glass on their way to a 59-55 win. Princeton enters play 16th nationally in total rebounding and the Tigers should destroy Missouri on the glass as the Mizzou Tigers have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the country this season.  Missouri has a very efficient offense, Mizzou ranks 28th nationally in field goal percentage but many of those shots come from distance and Princeton does an excellent job at defending the three point arc.  Missouri is going to have to work hard to get to the rim here (not their forte), if Mizzou isn’t converting it’s unlikely the Tigers get many second chance opportunities and I think that keeps Princeton in the game.

Missouri isn’t a great defensive team and that might be the reason Princeton WINS this game.  Missouri ranks 164th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (KenPom) and I think Mizzou was let off the hook on Thursday with Utah State (a team that lives and dies by the three point shot) going 4 for 24 from three.  Many of those shots were makeable looks for Utah State but the Aggies were just ice cold and it allowed Missouri to pull away for a win that looks easier in the box score than it actually was.  One would think Princeton needed to play the perfect game to beat Arizona but that actually wasn’t the case at all.  I’ve seen Princeton play a ton this season and I don’t think that was even close to their best effort as Princeton went 4 for 25 from three and shot well below their season average in the win.  Princeton has no problem playing fast, the majority of their games play in the 70’s and 80’s and, while I didn’t think they would hit their scoring average against a team like Arizona they absolutely can against a poor defensive team like Missouri.  Throw in what I consider to be a HUGE rebounding edge for Princeton and there’s multiple reasons/angles that lead me to believe the Tigers will have the upper hand in this game. 

Princeton isn’t built like your typical “mid/low-major” team, the Tigers are more athletic than what typically comes out of the Ivy and the “Princeton” offense (which head coach Mitch Henderson has made far more dynamic) runs through 6’8” 220 pound Tosan Evbuomwan who leads Princeton with 15 points per game and joins with front court mate Caden Pierce to completely own the glass.  Arizona has been a Top 10 rebounding team NATIONALLY all season and Pierce and Evbuomwan DESTROYED the Wildcats front court on Thursday.  Missouri just doesn’t rebound, it hasn’t killed Mizzou this season because they win games other ways but one of the biggest paths to victory for Mizzou has been shooting a high percentage and I don’t think Mizzou ends up with the high percentage looks from three here.  Just an outstanding matchup here for Princeton and I think the slipper fits for Cinderella here.  Play on Princeton +6.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)