Recent Play Details

4% Florida Atlantic (9:20 ET): This is the 8-seed (Memphis) and 9-seed (FAU) in the East Region with the winner almost certainly going on to face top seed Purdue in the second round (barring a Fairleigh Dickinson miracle). Similar to WVU-Maryland yesterday, this is not your ordinary 8 vs. 9 matchup as both teams are in the KenPom Top 25. But I side with the dog, who has taken sharp money, as Memphis is probably at the peak of the market right now coming off winning the AAC Tournament. Grab the points. 

Not to take anything away from Memphis, but the AAC is a pretty weak league outside of them and Houston, the latter of whom looked a little “disinterested” in the Tourney Final. To that point, the Cougars shot just 31.2% for the game and Marcus Sasser did not even play. The Tigers are probably due some defensive regression here after their L2 opponents combined to shoot below 30% from the floor. Also, despite Arkansas’ win and cover Thursday, 8-seeds favored by three or less (over 9-seeds) are on a poor 8-14 SU/5-16-1 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament. Might the oddsmakers be “tipping their hand” here? 

Florida Atlantic didn’t have to win the C-USA Tournament Final as they’d already done enough to qualify as an at-large team. But the Owls really impressed me by going out and smacking a very good UAB team 78-56 as a two-point dog. FAU has now won seven in a row and has just three losses all season. Getting back to possible Memphis’ defensive regression here, FAU can certainly score as it comes into the Tournament averaging 78.8 PPG. I think there’s a definite coaching edge to the Owls here as well with Dusty May over Penny Hardaway. The Owls will be joining the AAC next season and would love nothing more than to knock off a future conference rival here in the first round. Going back to 2009, first round favorites of three points or fewer are on 40-65-3 ATS slide (2-3 yesterday). 4% Florida Atlantic (Play to Pick - take ML if FAU is favored)