Recent Play Details

3% Take Indiana (#772)

If you watched the second half of Toledo – Michigan in NIT action on Tuesday Night, you’ll understand exactly why I’m playing Indiana in their Big Dance opener on Friday.  Kent was a solid MAC squad all year, but it’s not like this team faced many strong defensive squads and its not like they’ve stepped up in class much – the Golden Flashes have only been underdogs of +1.5 or higher three times all season; favored in every game they’ve played for the last four months.  They did cover early season pointspreads vs Houston and Gonzaga, but neither game was a ‘step up’ game for their opponent and the Kent offense didn’t work in either contest.

Now Kent is facing an opponent who isn’t going to look past them and an opponent that is elite on the defensive end of the floor – there’s only one of these two teams I trust to get stops during crunch time.  The Hoosiers were Top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to the KenPom numbers.  Indiana got bounced in the Round of 64 last year, an embarrassing blowout at the hands of St Mary’s.   This time around, there’s a very different feel to the contest, and a very different level of defensive acumen from their opponent.  Should it come down to free throw shooting at the end, it’s worth noting that the Hoosiers are a solid shooting team from the charity stripe – their three primary ball handlers all shoot 77% or better from the free throw line.  Take Indiana

Line Parameter: 3% at -5 or lower, 2% at -5.5 or higher