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4% Take Baylor (#796)

I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet.  I like Baylor as bigger chalk; 67% for the full season at -7.5 or higher, outclassing the teams they are supposed to outclass.  I like Baylor off back-2-back losses to Iowa State, first on senior day, then in their Big 12 tourney opener – this team is hungry, with something to prove.  I like fading teams like Cal Santa Barbara that haven’t faced an elite defensive squad all year, now stepping up in defensive class. Make no mistake about it – the Gauchos haven’t stepped up in class at all this year.  They were underdogs only three times; vs Hawaii, Pepperdine and Cal-Irvine, not exactly a who’s who of defensive minded, athletic squads like the one they'll face here.  Scott Drew’s team won their tourney opener 85-49 last year, and won their tourney opener 79-55 in 2021.  No surprise here if the Bears pull away and win this one by a very comfortable margin as well.  Take Baylor

Line Parameter: 4% at -12 or lower, 3% at -12.5 or higher.