Recent Play Details

3% Athletic Bilbao (4:00 ET): I think Friday is when Bilbao snaps out of its somewhat prolonged slump. It’s a five match winless run across all competitions for Bilbao, a side I feel should be competing for a Champions League spot, but is instead languishing down in 9th. They certainly have a comparable YTD goal differential (+6) to the top six teams in the table. Now last week I did fade Ernesto Valverde’s side last time out, which - for them - ended up being a 1-0 to Barcelona. But, even as a Barca bettor, I felt Bilbao probably deserved to at least share the points in that fixture. They won the xG battle and VAR wiped out a potential equalizer. Looking at the next two matches, it’s critical that Bilbao pick up points as they are facing a pair of relegation-threatened sides. 

The first is Real Valladolid. It has been very shocking to me to see the White & Violets escape the bottom three with four points from the last two matches. They beat Espanyol 2-1 and then had to settle for a 1-1 draw last week with last place Elche, who got the equalizer in stoppage time. Having just been promoted back to the Spanish top flight this season, Valladolid’s only goal this season was survival. But I’ve got them rated - comfortably - in the bottom four and do NOT see them picking up any points from this fixture. 

Bilbao won the reverse 3-0 in San Mames back in November. Maybe it’s not that lopsided this time around, but look for the visitors to take all three points. Real Valladolid is tied (with Elche) for the fewest number of goals scored this season in La Liga (19) and they have an expected goal difference of -19, which is tied for third worst. Three of Athletic Bilbao’s previous four fixtures came against sides above them in the table. So this is a drop in class to face an opponent they haven’t lost to in the previous five head to head meetings. 3% Athletic Bilbao (Play to -130)