Recent Play Details

3% Newcastle United (4:00 ET): Either Arsenal or Man City is going to win the Premier League. You already know that. But, as far as I’m concerned, the other two Champions League spots are very much up for grabs. Last time out, Newcastle United snapped a winless run of five in a row with a 2-1 win over Wolves at St. James Park. That puts the Magpies six points back of third (Manchester United) and four points back of fourth (Tottenham). Key to Newcastle’s chase for the top four is they’ve played a fewer number of matches compared to the two clubs they’re chasing. So it’s a critical three points on the line Friday. 

We’re getting a good price on the Magpies due to Nottingham Forest’s home form. The Tricky Trees have not lost here at the City Ground since October. Forest have picked up 77% of their total points on home soil this season - that’s easily the highest percentage of any team in the EPL. You also have to consider that Newcastle have failed to win four straight away in the league. But the bottom line here is that these two clubs are at opposite ends of the table. Forest is one of NINE teams separated by just five points at the bottom and I’ve got them rated as the second worst side in the league (ahead of only Bournemouth) based on expected points and goal differential. 

Meanwhile, Newcastle is top four in both actual and xGD, so the Magpies are very much a “worthy” Champions League contender. They’re also tied with Arsenal for the fewest number of losses (3) this season and - despite conceding in five straight matches - Newcastle still have the best defensive record in the league (just 18 goals conceded) by a pretty substantial margin. All told; I believe this is a tremendous price on the vastly superior side. Newcastle won the reverse 2-0 back in August. 3% Newcastle United (Play to -175)