Recent Play Details

2 PM ET -- College Basketball

773 VCU 
774 Saint Mary's CA  

Play: 774 SAINT MARY'S CA -4 (-110)

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at -4.5 or better
3% play at -5
2% play at -5.5
1% play at -6

I think VCU is overrated and getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers here.  Where are VCU's big wins this season?  The highest-rated team it beat was Pittsburgh, which ranks 78th in KenPom's rankings.  Saint Mary's is #12.  In VCU's only real step-up games, it lost by 4 to Arizona State (#55) and by 15 to Memphis (#18).

Saint Mary's owns an OT home win over Gonzaga (KenPom's #8).  Any win over Gonzaga is huge.  They also own a 7-point win over a San Diego State team (#16) that just advanced to the Round of 32.  The Gaels will win the battle on the boards, which will go a long way here.

The clincher: Since 2005, teams entering the NCAA Tournament off a loss by 20 points or more are 22-11-1 (67%) ATS.  We already saw Kansas cash in this spot on Thursday.  Saint Mary's will be ready to erase the bad taste of that 26-point loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Championship game.  Lay it.