Recent Play Details

9:55 PM ET -- College Basketball

753 Penn State 
754 Texas A&M  

Play: 753 PENN STATE +3 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at +2 or better
2% play at +1 or +1.5
1% play at pick'em

Congrats to Penn State coach Micah Shrewsberry on getting his team into the Big Dance in just his 2nd season & damn near upsetting Purdue to win the Big 10 Tournament.  They were the dog in all 4 Big 10 Tourney games & had a chance to beat Purdue at the end but couldn’t get a shot off.  I’m not a fan of moral victories but they have to feel good about the run they made in that tournament.

On the other side, A&M’s Buzz Williams has his Aggies in the Big Dance for the 1st time in his 4 years there.  They got drilled by Alabama in the SEC Tourney title game.. got beat by 19 as a 4.5-pt dog.  

This game qualifies in a situational angle that I like.  Single-digit SEC favorites coming into the Big Dance off a loss, like Texas A&M, are just 4-6 SU 2-8 ATS over the last 3 NCAA Tourneys.

Going back to Penn State, in Shrewsberry’s 2 years at the helm, PSU is 8-5 SU & 12-1 ATS in neutral site games. And that was with an average line of +2.8, which is about what we have in this one.  For comparison, Buzz Williams’ Aggies were just 3-4 SU & ATS in neutral site games this season despite the average line being A&M -4.3.

Penn State is an elite 3-point shooting team and A&M is 352nd out of 363 teams in 3-point attempt percentage (3PA/FGA) and 212th in Open 3-point Rate per ShotQuality.  Penn State's defense struggled this season against elite jump-shooting teams and also struggled to force turnovers.  But you don't need to excel in those two areas when facing Texas A&M.

I like the fight this Penn State team has shown recently & A&M might be a little down after the way they got drilled by Alabama.  Even if they’re not, I like the matchup for the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State plus the points.