Recent Play Details

12:40 PM ET -- College Basketball

739 Furman 
740 Virginia  

Play: 1H UNDER 61 (-110)

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at 60.5 or better
4% play at 60
3% play at 59.5
2% play at 59
1% play at 58.5

My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

NOTE: I'm not concerned with sample size.  My focus is on current-season data, preferably with a margin of victory of more than two possessions (6 points).  All trends/angles listed are from the current season only unless otherwise noted.

-> Play the 1H UNDER in NCAA Tournament games with a 1H Total of less than 70 that start prior to 2pm ET.
55-28-3 (66.3%) since 2011.

-> Play the 1H UNDER in the First Four or Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament.
84-57-2 (60%) since 2018.

-> The UNDER is 4-0 (by 16 ppg) over the last two seasons when Virginia is playing a neutral site game in March against teams that are averaging 57 or more field-goal attempts per game.  The games averaged just 45 total first-half points.

-> Virginia ranks 360th out of 363 teams in Adjusted Tempo per KenPom and they're #24 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. I expect them to slow this game to a crawl. Furman may be able to adjust at halftime, but we're only taking the 1H Under.

-> The UNDER is 6-0 this season (by 12.6 ppg) when Furman is on the road or at a neutral site and is coming off a game in which at least 165 total points were scored.  There were only an average of 64.2 total points scored in the first half despite the average full-game total being 145.4 (only 132 here).