Recent Play Details

4% Take Colgate (#755)

One Big Dance angle that I look for in the first round is to fade major conference teams as bigger favorites off a very satisfying conference tourney victory.  Texas is certainly that team this year; coming off a beatdown of Kansas in the Big 12 championship game; their second blowout win over Kansas in a week’s time.  Texas might well be a legit Final Four squad, but this first round game against Colgate has all the makings of a trap for the overconfident Longhorns.

Colgate is a veteran, senior laden team that can hit the three ball – even if they fall behind by 20+ in this ballgame, they’re still live to get back in it.  It’s surely worth noting that they lost only one game ALL SEASON by more than 12 points; not a team that loses contact very often. 

But the key here is Colgate’s previous tourney experience.  Last year, they hung with Wisconsin for the full game; a wire-2-wire cover as 7.5 point underdogs.  Two years ago, they made the Big Dance and lost to Arkansas.  There was no tourney in 202, but in 2019, Colgate covered wire-2-wire against Tennessee, losing by only seven as 17 point dogs.

From all indications, this Colgate team isn’t ‘happy to be here’; they’re ‘hungry for a Big Dance Win’ after battling quality foes tough in recent Round of 64 games.  I expect the Raiders to give the Longhorns everything they can handle in a game that’s worthy of a little sprinkle on the moneyline…. Take Colgate

Line Parameter: 4% at +12 or higher, 3%at +11.5 or lower