Recent Play Details

AMAZING DEAL FROM WAGERTALK'S 2 BEST MARCH MADNESS CAPPERS

Ralph Michaels is #1 in March Madness profit over the last 5 NCAA Tournaments combined.

Dwayne Bryant has finished #1 in profit, win percentage, or ROI in 3 of the last 4 NCAA Tournaments.

Right now, you can get BOTH Ralph and Dwayne's March Madness plays through the Championship game for just $169. That's a $129 savings over buying each of them separately! Don't miss out!   wt.buzz/db

8:10 PM ET -- NBA

583 Sacramento Kings 
584 Chicago Bulls

Play: UNDER 237 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 236 or better 
2% play at 235 or 235.5
1% play at 234 or 234.5

My NBA totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data (using NBA.com's stats for pace and offensive & defensive efficiency), history involving similar games from a situational perspective (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

NOTE: I am not concerned with sample size.  I'm looking for current-season, recent performance patterns, especially ones with an average winning margin of at least two possessions (> 6 points).  All trends/angles listed are from the current season only unless otherwise noted.

DELTA POINTS: A team's projected points scored or allowed. Example: We have a game where the favorite is -10 and the total is 230. So, the favorite's Delta Points is 120, while the underdog's Delta Points is 110. A team's Delta Points number should be within a half-point of the team's actual posted team total.

-> The UNDER is 7-0 (by 13 ppg) when the Kings are on the road against a non-conference opponent with the line anywhere from -4 to +4.5. The Kings went UNDER its Delta Points in all 7 games.

-> The UNDER is 8-1 (by 11.2 ppg) when the Kings are on the road against a non-conference opponent that averages 23 or more assists per game. The Kings went UNDER its Delta Points in all 9 games.

-> The UNDER is 3-0 (by 24.5 ppg) when Chicago is at home and playing only its 3rd game in 8 days. The Bulls held all 3 opponents to UNDER their Delta Points.

-> The UNDER is 10-2 (by 7.7 ppg) when Chicago is at home against a team with a winning record (1 game went Over by 1 point due to OT). The Bulls held 9 of those 12 opponents (6 of the last 7) UNDER their Delta Points.